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Gut Feelings: Trust Your Instincts, Verify With Evidence
Have you ever had the feeling that something wasn’t quite right, even though the numbers looked fine? Strong leadership means knowing when to trust that feeling and when to investigate it.
From Steve
Have you ever had that feeling that something just wasn’t right? You couldn’t quite put your finger on it. The numbers looked fine, but something told you to take a closer look.
I’ve experienced that throughout my career.
Over time, we develop instincts. We recognize patterns, notice subtle changes, and sense when something deserves our attention.
But a gut feeling isn’t the same as knowing.
Our instincts can point us in a direction. The evidence helps us understand whether it’s the right one.
Intuition isn’t only about identifying problems. It can help us solve challenges, plan for the future, or recognize that something good could be even better.
Sometimes the evidence confirms our instincts. Sometimes it challenges them.
Either way, we have an opportunity to learn, improve, and get better.
When Something Doesn’t Feel Right
I once worked with a professional services firm in the Midwest. Business was good, and the financial results were strong. But recurring quality issues were creating frustration within the team and, more importantly, affecting clients.
An error caught internally is one thing. Discovering incorrect or missing information while sitting across from a client is something else entirely.
Leadership suspected staffing and engagement issues. Their instincts weren’t wrong, but they hadn’t uncovered the whole story.
Looking more closely revealed inadequate process controls. Working together, we implemented stronger controls and successfully reduced the risk of errors reaching clients.
Their gut feeling was right, but incomplete.
The evidence helped us see what else needed to change.
Let Instinct Begin the Investigation
A gut feeling should not automatically become a conclusion. It should become a reason to ask better questions.
A practical leadership process looks like this:
Sense
Pay attention when something feels different, inconsistent, or incomplete.
Question
Ask what might be causing that feeling. Avoid settling too quickly on the first explanation.
Investigate
Move closer to the work. Speak with the people involved, observe the process, and gather useful information.
Validate
Determine whether the evidence confirms your original thinking or points in another direction.
Act
Use what you have learned to make a thoughtful decision and improve the situation.
Let your instincts start the investigation. Let the evidence guide your decision.
Be Willing to Change Your Mind
Experience gives leaders valuable pattern recognition. It helps us notice things that may not immediately appear in a report.
But experience can also create assumptions.
The goal is not to ignore intuition or treat data as the only source of truth. The goal is to use them together.
Trust your instincts enough to investigate.
Trust the evidence enough to change your mind.
From the Bookshelf
Competing Against Luck
By Clayton M. Christensen, Taddy Hall, Karen Dillon, and David S. Duncan
This book challenged me to think differently about innovation. Sometimes our instincts help us recognize opportunities we haven’t fully understood yet. The key is being curious enough to explore them.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
By Daniel Kahneman
This book is on my reading list. Its exploration of intuition, judgment, and how we make decisions makes it a natural companion to this week’s topic.
This Week’s Challenge
What has been on your mind lately?
Is there something that doesn’t feel quite right?
Trust your instincts, but don’t stop there. Look for evidence that confirms or challenges your thinking.
Then act on what you’ve learned.
Keep Sharpening
Good leadership requires judgment, curiosity, and the willingness to look beyond the most obvious explanation.
If something in your organization doesn’t feel quite right, it may be worth a closer look.
A Sharpening Conversation is a focused 30 minute discussion about strengthening your leadership, improving your organization, and exploring a challenge or opportunity. There is no formal presentation and no pressure, just a practical conversation to gain clarity and determine whether there is a useful next step.
Better today. Even better tomorrow. That’s the journey.
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